Capacitance screen market will overheat the well blowout

The so-called capacitive touch screen, refers to the glass surface with a layer of transparent special metal conductive material. When the finger is touched on the metal layer, the capacitance of the contact changes, so that the frequency of the oscillator connected to it changes, and the position of the touch can be determined by measuring the frequency change.

The situation of the domestic touch screen core enterprises As the core enterprise in the capacitive touch screen manufacturing industry, Wei Wei, chairman of Lehigh High Tech (002106), proposed at the shareholders' meeting last week that the “mainstream touch screen production capacity is facing a surplus”. However, this remark did not stop industry practitioners and institutional investors. The other two companies, Longtek Technology (300088) and CSG A (000012), which are also called “China's Capacitive Screen Sanjie” by LEYBOLD, expressed that in the face of the upcoming capacitive screen market blowout, the expansion of production capacity is this year’s One of the major plans. Mobile phone and tablet computer manufacturers from the capacitive screen downstream also revealed that as Apple's iPhone and iPad continue to be hot, many mid-to-high end and even midrange product deployment plans of many manufacturers have begun to tend to capacitive screens, resulting in a surge in production capacity. Lower prices, they are more optimistic about their success.

Capacitance screen space is huge The reason why LEYBOLD Hi-Tech has thrown overcapacity is that according to its observation, there will be new and expanded capacitive touch screen production lines in the industry in 2010, and it is foreseeable that the production capacity of capacitive touch screen production lines will increase in the next few years. With a large scale of growth, the risk of product price reduction has further increased.

If the description of risk is focused on "price cuts," the gradual capacitive blowout of the screen behind the market has attracted a lot of crocodile fighters.

The so-called capacitive touch screen, refers to the glass surface with a layer of transparent special metal conductive material. When the finger is touched on the metal layer, the capacitance of the contact changes, so that the frequency of the oscillator connected to it changes, and the position of the touch can be determined by measuring the frequency change.

When most manufacturers use resistive screens as touch screens for mobile phones, Apple Inc. is one of the first companies to use capacitive screens on its products. With iPhones and iPads, capacitive screens have become a part of consumer electronics usage habits.

According to market research agency G artner, the average annual growth rate of sales of smart phones, tablet PCs and 3D TVs will exceed 50% in the next few years. Capacitive touch screens will be the most direct beneficiaries of the rapid development of these industries. Gartner expects that in 2012, the global sales of touch screen smartphones will reach about 400 million units.

This precisely coincides with the focus of the overcapacity theory on capacitive screens—a surge in market demand has led to an increase in scale and a decrease in the unit price. As a result, it is necessary to compensate for the decline in unit price by increasing production capacity. When everyone is increasing their production capacity, excess conditions may occur.

The increase in production capacity raises concerns that you are chasing after me. In the face of a market where demand is gradually erupting, production capacity has to be improved. In the first quarterly financial report of Leybold Tech, the “Construction-in-progress” column increased by 30,729,700 yuan, an increase of 56.33%. The report said that the increase was mainly due to an increase in the production expansion of medium to large size capacitive touch screens.

As a major rival of Leybold’s, Changxin Technology is not shying away from its production capacity and said that capacity expansion is one of the major tasks this year. It is understood that since the touch screen project has become the new growth point of Changxin Technology in the past two years, the company has used super-raised funds 3 . 300 million investment in 20 million small-scale touch screen projects, and investment in 190 million annual output of 5 million medium-sized touch screen project is progressing smoothly.

A research report of Shenyin Wanguo, which is headed for Changxin Technology, pointed out that the optimistic estimate of the expansion of its production capacity can be put into production in the fourth quarter of this year, just in time to meet the explosive market demand for touchscreen materials for smartphones and tablet computers. It will become the main growth driver for the company (Changxin Technology) in the past two years."

South Glass, which has the same production capacity of IT O conductive glass (the key raw material for capacitive screens) as Raitech Hi-Tech and Changxin Technology, is constantly laying plans for increasing production. In the case of the resolution passed by the CSG Board of Directors, CSG's Wujiang flat panel display industry base has 480,000 ITO glass production capacity, ITO flexible film with a capacity of 720,000 square meters, and capacitive touch screen sensor glass with a capacity of 840,000 wafers. The projects are under construction and are expected to start production in early 2013.

In addition to the above three listed companies, ultrasound electronics (000823) in the capacitive screen industry is also stepping up production capacity expansion. According to sources, ultrasound electronics is the only supplier of Lenovo Music Phone touch screens. In 2010, Ultrasonic Electronics will carry out a capacitive touch screen technical transformation project, which will increase the annual production capacity of 45,000 square meters of capacitive touch screen, and is expected to be put into production in May this year.

It's like a cycle to bet on a future, because the market demand has soared, and the entire capacitive screen industry has started a capacity increase competition. Lai Bao Hi-Tech and Wei Dong Wei saw this because of the excess capacity. In this regard, the downstream mobile phone manufacturers are optimistic about their success. In fact, in their opinion, no matter which type of component, there is a gradual drop in the price from the cloud as the scale gradually expands.

The domestic smart phone manufacturer Yu Long Cool sent relevant reporters to Nandu reporters that this year the company will launch a variety of Android phones, covering the high school and low end. In order to bring the best experience to users, the demand for capacitive screens naturally increases. "The touch screen is one of the most important components. The price competition under the increase of upstream production capacity is naturally beneficial to us."

In addition to the popularity boom foreseen in the smartphone market, tablet PCs are also seen as the main force pushing capacitive screen companies to increase their capacity. Take the most popular tablet computer Apple iPad, for example, the cost of the capacitive screen takes up about 1/3 of the overall hardware cost. Nowadays, the well-known companies in the PC industry and the mobile phone industry have all swept into the midfield of tablet PCs. New products are emerging one after another. In the above-mentioned first quarterly report of LEYBOLD, the increase in production capacity was also focused on mid-to-large size capacitive screens for tablet PCs.

However, in Huajie Consulting analyst Li Yuankai, it seems that for a long time tablet PCs are difficult to become the “pillar” of the capacitive screen industry. The reason is that although the iPad heat has motivated the “slab nerve” of other IT companies, the first round Most of the products have the property of testing the water, mainly depends on the market reaction. Although the production capacity of the betting tablet PC is even more profitable, the “gambling” component is also more concentrated.

Southern Reporters also obtained similar information during the interview. For example, Motorola dealers revealed that Motorola has not set sales targets for XOOM, a tablet computer that has just been listed in China. Another Lenovo dealer stated that he had ordered 2,000 tablet "music pads". At present, it only has two arrivals. Lenovo itself is still collecting feedback from the market for music pads and has not shipped a lot.

As for the possible overcapacity situation, Li Yuankai described it as a "gamble for a future." "No one knows how big orders they may get. If the business falls on their own, they will miss the best possible capacity. Golden period."