CMIC: Global polysilicon demand will reach 1 million tons in the next three to five years

The latest release of CMIC (China Market Intelligence Center): Photovoltaic product prices have been substantially reduced in the short term, and pessimistic remarks such as "overcapacity" and "elimination tide" have emerged again. However, CMIC industry analysts pointed out that the polysilicon industry is still within the big economic cycle. In the next three to five years, the global demand for polysilicon will increase to the level of one million tons, which is about ten times now.

CMIC industry analysts believe that with the continuous reduction in the cost of solar power generation, in the next three to five years, in some markets in Europe and America, the cost of solar power generation will be lower than thermal power, and solar energy will usher in a new round of rapid growth. “We estimate that the global demand for polysilicon will increase to the level of 1 million tons within the three-to-five-year cycle, which is about ten times the current level. Polysilicon is not a simple cyclical industry, and this industry has huge space.”

In addition, the drop in the price of polysilicon is beneficial to ease the squeezed dilemma of downstream industries: the decline in silicon prices is the only way for the development of the photovoltaic industry. The drop in module prices since the end of last year and the firmness of silicon prices have kept the downstream industry gross margins from being compressed. In particular, the impact of batteries and wafers has been the most obvious. The recent decline in silicon prices has made this situation significantly improved.