If everyone spends a penny on commuting every minute, then on average one year will be a tower of 1,433,400 miles. This distance is enough to make three round trips between Earth and the Moon.
U.S. companies spend more on air travel. For Fortune 500 companies, the average annual expenditure in this area exceeds 21 billion US dollars.
For the average American family, the annual expenditure on transportation is about US$9,004. In some areas, this expenditure is sufficient to cover a three-bedroom down payment. For many people in New York and San Francisco, this overhead is only to allow you to ease your breath on the road to commuting.
The development of technology is constantly reshaping our relationship with travel, and this change is accelerating to a turning point. The development of transportation technology has continuously reshaped our lives and cities, and has also brought about major changes in our choice of living environment. Looking back, all experiences have guided us to a better future.
The introduction of railways is a major event in the history of the United States. With the extension of the railway to the wilderness, arrival in poor areas and no-man's land, it has brought new industries to the area, towns and even new cities.
Similarly, commercial flights are major innovations in transportation, which not only shorten travel time, but also further reduce the geographical gap between countries. In the 1950s, the improvement of the interstate highways reduced the cost and time of transportation between towns and cities, benefiting local farmers and consumers alike.
Rapid international travel has also promoted globalization and made the world aware enough that you can buy Mexican-grown produce at a grocery store in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Progress in transportation technology has created millions of jobs, created trillions of dollars in economic benefits, and changed the way people treat time and space.
We are at the critical point of accelerated growth.
New modes of transportation
In 2012, Elon Musk, the chief executive of Tesla, an electric car manufacturer, announced that he was conducting research on the “Fiveth Mode of Transportâ€. It is said to be a new type of land transportation. The passenger compartment operates at speeds of over 700 kilometers per hour in near-vacuum pipelines. Musk named this new mode of transportation "hyperloop".
Shervin Pishevar, co-founder of Hyperloop One, a super high-speed rail company, saw the business opportunities. He set about establishing a team to create the first large-scale super high-speed rail system by 2020. . As early as 100 years ago, similar concepts have emerged. In a century, many futurists only dreamed when such a means of transportation could be realized. There is no doubt that thanks to Musk’s creativity and Piecheva’s execution, this idea has moved from scientific fantasy to reality.
The HSR is not the only disruptive innovation that changes the way we travel.
Auto-driving car technology is another subversive technology that has long existed in people's imagination. Since the beginning of the 20th century, it has been receiving attention from the industry and has made tremendous progress in recent years. The industry expects that self-driving cars will become the main means of transportation within five years.
Companies such as Toyota, Ford, Mercedes, BMW, Tesla, Nvidia and Google are all pursuing concepts related to driverless car technology. So far, five states in the United States have allowed auto-driving cars to be tested on public roads; in August this year, Singapore has launched the world's first self-driving taxi service. The future of self-driving cars has started from accidental to inevitable.
As in the previous transportation revolution, super high-speed rail and self-driving cars will change the lives of millions or even hundreds of millions of people. These technologies will create more wealth, create jobs, change the course of industrial development, and so on. Perhaps the opportunities presented by these new modes of transportation are far from what we can now think. However, there is a lot of controversy over every disruptive innovation. But to what extent are these objections based on reality rather than fear? Will these so-called negative influences exceed the opportunities offered by these new technologies?
Can we believe in the machine?
Currently outside government supervision, the biggest problem with autonomous vehicles is how to improve safety and reliability. People often worry that self-driving cars will not obey traffic regulations, and they will not be reliable in bad weather. Usually, they do not predict potential dangers. The recent series of accidents involving self-driving cars also exacerbated these concerns.
What we need to make clear is that self-driving cars perform much better than humans. We know that Tesla’s self-driving vehicles have traveled 222 million miles and only one fatal accident occurred. In comparison, humans drive a vehicle and cause a fatal accident for every 940,000 miles. It is easy to see why so many experts believe that the emergence of self-driving cars will lead to a safer road environment and fewer accidents.
According to a survey conducted by the US Department of Transportation, 94% of road traffic accidents are caused by human error. In the safety testing of self-driving cars, the safety has reached and surpassed all the standards. A statistical data released by the Virginia Institute of Science, Technology, Transport and Transport shows that self-driving cars are safer than ordinary cars. In 2016, Google’s self-driving vehicle Waymo traveled 2 million miles, with an average speed of about 30 miles per hour, which is equivalent to an uninterrupted 66,667 hours or 7.6 years of continuous driving without a major accident.
For several recent auto-driving car accidents, investigations revealed that these accidents were mainly caused by other people on the road rather than the self-driving cars themselves.
Of course, subversive personality is often questioned by people's common sense. However, there is a lot of evidence that if we take the initiative to embrace autonomous driving technology, then the danger of driving in the future will be much reduced.
Impact on the job market
In fact, the initial railroad incident also caused people to worry about safety. Looking at it now is awkward, but in the 19th century, this new form of high-speed traffic was considered to be inconsistent with the laws of nature and was incompatible with the status quo.
The emergence of railways also caused many disagreements in the transportation industry at that time. The coachman fears that their work will be replaced by newer, more efficient, and more cost-effective modes of transportation. In the face of super high-speed rail and self-driving car technology, people have the same concern. It is estimated that 10% of jobs in the United States are related to drivers. So, how much impact will these new modes of transport have on the careers of millions of people?
In short, the answer is not much of an impact. Of course, the industry will change with it. The new route will be planned and the role of the driver will change. However, new industry industries and jobs will also appear.
It can be said that many of the transport routes currently used by truck drivers can be replaced by super high-speed rails. As with the 19th century railways, it would be cheaper and faster to transport goods through super high-speed rails. This will change the economics of the entire supply chain and shorten the product delivery time of the manufacturing ecosystem. However, this does not solve all the problems.
The cargo still needs to be transported from the station to its final destination. This is the so-called "last mile" issue. This role still needs to be completed by a human driver driving a car, and for small items, it can also be done by drones.
In fact, on the other hand, if we accept that super-high-speed rail will replace air cargo, then this will mean that more goods will be transported by land, which can bring more opportunities for the freight industry.
Therefore, there is no basis for worrying that the self-driving truck will take away the driver's work. Operators still need to manage goods, maintain safety, and require humans to perform operations when the goods are delivered.
Similarly, for the upcoming self-driving cars, there are concerns that Uber, Lyft and other taxi service companies and taxi drivers will be renewed. However, this concern does not meet the possible realities of technological innovation.
As in the future of freight transport, the passenger transport service industry may be affected by self-driving cars, but it is unlikely to threaten human work immediately. Like self-driving trucks, autopiloted buses require manual intervention for a variety of reasons including insurance, which means that the driver’s current job will only change, not completely replace.
This does not mean that there will not be some low-cost point-to-point automated driving services. In my opinion, the market prefers products and services that are more comfortable and at the same time manpower is still essential.
This change will not only maintain existing jobs, but also strengthen the development of the passenger transport service industry, thus creating a completely new economic system.
New mobile service economy
According to Karl Iagnemma, CEO of Nutonomy, a self-driving taxi company, drivers are more customer-centric in self-driving cars. This means that drivers will be more focused on customer experience and satisfaction, which in turn means that the entire industry will usher in an incredible rate of expansion.
With the reduction in the number of driving cars, there will be a substantial increase in road passenger traffic, and companies will have the opportunity to reshape the transportation service industry. For many years, railroad companies and airlines have obtained a lot of profits. They sell goods and high-quality experiences to passengers so as to continuously increase sales and improve customer experience.
The self-driving vehicles will take this industry to a new height and attract numerous new and small companies to get involved.
Future transportation services go far beyond providing snacks and refreshments in the process.
First of all, with the popularization of self-driving cars, the scale and internal space of vehicles will be effectively improved, which can provide passengers with different grades of customer service. Many service companies can provide more for new modes of transportation and more travel time. Quality customer service.
Driven by the autopilot technology, more and more businesses will be more mobile. Coffee shops, movie theaters, massage rooms, medical points, legal service agencies, restaurants and even bars can provide users with services anywhere, anytime.
For those who experienced the "APP explosion" at the beginning of the millennium, in the next few years, there will be an explosion in the transportation service industry.
Obviously, not only Tesla and Google will benefit from the rise of these new forms of transportation, it will also provide companies with new opportunities for new products and services.
Remodel commuting
Apart from being able to bring direct wealth, super high-speed rail and self-driving car technologies will also be more abundant with the rise of these new travel methods. In 014, Americans spent 29.6 billion hours on commuting.
The average annual commuting time is 106 hours per person. This is the time that most people spend on driving or taking the subway to work. With the popularity of the new commuting model, people can not only reduce work hours, but also commuting time will become rich and colorful.
The commuting time can be a free time for the passengers: work, meeting, leisure or dating. From the economic point of view, it will also create enormous wealth value for the society. According to an independent economic analysis of the potential impact of self-driving cars in Europe, auto-driving car technology will contribute 0.16 percentage points to Europe's annual economic growth rate, equivalent to nearly $18 trillion by 2050.
The new commuting methods bring far-reaching economic benefits. Many studies show that commuting conditions have an important influence on people's happiness, health and happiness. The more time you spend on commuting, the higher the degree of stress and anxiety. The survey showed that the longest commuting people had the lowest overall satisfaction with life.
The new technology will not only make the commuting time shorter, the commuting process more enjoyable, but more importantly it will bring more choices to people and bring us more choices.
Impact on the aviation industry
The benefits of the new transport economy and changes in commuting methods may lead to a substantial increase in land travel. This will give users more choices for self-driving cars to replace short-haul domestic flights.
According to travel expert Jim Loomis, "A large number of airlines fly between cities that are less than 400 miles apart." That's true for 30-40% of Chicago's O'Hare flights. If you compare the speed of short-range air travel and super high-speed rail, passengers on many flights will be attracted to land traffic.
Similarly, the convenience of self-driving cars is far superior to that of airlines. Both modes of transport are not affected by conditions such as extreme weather conditions, fewer trip cancellations or delays, and flexible schedules that allow passengers to travel freely. Users can automatically summon auto-driving car cars at home and arrive at their destinations, greatly improving passenger mobility.
New modes of transportation also make passengers more colorful and colorful, which will also attract passengers away from air travel. Just as we believe that the new technology will reshape the economy of transportation services, self-driving cars will bring passengers far more comfort than flights. As we all know, the airline is a surprisingly poor experience for users of network services on the flight, and it is very expensive, but it is not a problem for the new traffic under land travel. The speed of the Internet with self-driving cars using Wifi technology will be very fast.
Moreover, compared to aircraft, the increase in interior space will also change the rules of the game in the existing market. Audi's senior strategist Sven Schuwirth has proposed a revolutionary interior for self-driving cars, which means that its functionality can be changed according to the type of travel and the needs of passengers. It not only allows a group of friends or colleagues to travel together, but also continues to work during leisure time.
All of this is bad news for airlines, especially for airlines that specialize in short-haul flights. However, as we will see, this passenger relocation will have a huge positive impact on us all.
Green alternatives
Land travel is not only more environmentally friendly than air travel, but self-driving cars and super high-speed trains will also be able to provide more sustainable green energy.
First take a look at a self-driving car. This will be more environmentally friendly than ordinary cars. Initial self-driving car driverless cars are likely to be purely electric, or at least hybrid cars. General Motors, Tesla and Google are pushing eco-friendly self-driving cars.
Moreover, the popularity of self-driving cars means that there will be more carpooling services, which will correspondingly reduce congestion on the road. At the same time, machine-driven vehicles will increase driving efficiency as they can reduce emissions through energy-optimized controls. In addition, in 2013, a British study showed that drivers spend an average of 6 minutes and 45 seconds to find a parking space. Reducing or eliminating the search for parking spaces can effectively solve traffic congestion in urban roads.
From another perspective, new technologies such as the super high-speed rail will also become the main weapon against climate change. Musk believes that installing a pipe with solar panels is feasible, which means that in terms of energy consumption, the entire super-high-speed rail transport system will be completely green and sustainable.
Change the urban landscape
New transportation tools may also subvert our concept of urban life, affecting the use of urban space and satellite towns.
Currently in the United States, the total parking space has reached 1,713 square miles, which is almost six times the size of New York City. In Los Angeles, parking spaces account for 14% of registered land. The transformation of transportation will make this number continue to decline. There will be fewer and fewer people with private cars. Self-driving cars will also be parked on the outskirts of the city or parked in the city.
With the increasing value of current urban space, it is not difficult to imagine how much benefit it can bring to release these spaces. These lands can be used to build green spaces, parks, houses or new commercial centers. All jobs related to these infrastructures will create more employment opportunities.
The new mode of transport is not only good for big cities and their residents. New traffic created by super-high-speed trains and self-driving cars will also benefit rural areas and create new city centres just like previous interstate highway systems. For example, people can live completely in the suburbs of Reno in Nevada and work in San Francisco.
In the past decade, the Washington, DC metro has expanded further to McLean and Virginia. As the subway network expands like the blood vessels around the heart, it will bring more wealth to new regions and allow more people to move to areas with low prices and low population density.
Similarly, the super high-speed rail will also create similar effects on a larger scale.
It can cover hundreds of miles around the city. The Super High Speed ​​Rail can speed up the transportation of goods and achieve the same day delivery by connecting the warehouse to the main target cities. You can imagine that the super high-speed rails continue to deliver blood to the city like arteries. Regardless of its connection path, as a by-product, it enables people to live at a very low cost while being able to reach the city center quickly.
More and more people will choose to live in the satellite city and work in the city center. As we have seen, the HSR not only creates new employment opportunities for millions of people through new commuting methods, but also creates new industries and huge amounts of wealth.
Unexpected side effects
In recent months, reports of growing disparities between urban and rural areas have continued to be reported in newspapers, not only in the United States, but also throughout the world. Whether it is Trump’s election or the surprising result of the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom, it is considered to be due to the division of society.
The differences between the political forces of the left and the political forces of the right are increasing. In recent years, although the development of mega-cities has continued to accelerate, many remote rural areas are in a difficult position due to lack of new industries and wealth injections.
This brings about the thought of washing: Is the new mode of transport likely to become a sedative for social disintegration? Of course, this is not a panacea, but the new mode of transportation can completely bring coastal wealth to inland areas. The arrival of new transportation tools can produce similar historical results. On a global scale, new cities and towns are springing up as a result of the large-scale construction of railways, airports, and expressways, and the existing regions have also begun to flourish.
We only need to look at the former United States to see how much wealth and opportunities the railway across the continent brings; a large number of companies are born and thrive; information and knowledge are more easily disseminated; a strong country recovers from the civil war. By advancing new modes of transportation, the entire society may have similar development in the coming years.
The show has not yet been staged
Perhaps the most exciting prospects for the super high-speed rail and self-driving cars have not yet emerged. We have not fully opened the door to exploration.
We discussed how these innovations will bring new wealth, create new industries, bring more time, connect lovers to each other, reduce carbon emissions, and free up more space. But we just touched the fur. Other benefits include more convenient transportation for people who cannot drive, reducing congestion, and creating new jobs.
In any case, innovation in transportation allows us to open up a new world. By bringing this technology to new modes of transportation for billions of people around the world, we are constantly turning reality that was unthinkable in the past.
Since the industrial revolution, the human world has undergone a major change every half-century. Every transition faced fear and doubt, but each time created a brave new world.
We are not sure what will happen in the future, but I choose hope and believe. I choose to believe that in the next corner we will see the light of hope and illuminate the comfortable future in which we are connected. (晗冰)
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