Moore's Law and the Haitz Law of the LED Industry

[Source: Gaogong LED 's " LED Good Products" magazine March issue ]

If the meteor that struck the Earth after the Spring Festival in 2013 came ahead in 2012, I am afraid it will be proved that the Maya predicted the end of the 2012 world.

For the Chinese LED industry, 2012 is a tough year. The LED company has closed down, and the boss’s “running the road” is not surprising.

The author met with a person in charge of a “running road” and talked for a long time. The other party suddenly realized that the lack of Haitz's law for the LED industry may be one of the reasons why the whole loser lost.

Moore's law

In 1965, one of Intel's founders, Gordon Moore, found an amazing trend when arranging data into graphs—the integration of computer chips doubling every 18 to 24 months, meaning Advances in IC technology have led to a doubling of computer performance in 18 to 24 months.

The data collected in the practice of industrialization confirms the three versions of "Moore's Law":

1. The integration on the chip doubles every 18 to 24 months.

2. The performance of the microprocessor doubles every 18 to 24 months, or the price drops by half.

3. The performance of a computer purchased in one dollar can be doubled in computer performance after 18 to 24 months.

Moore's Law, which proved to be true in the past half century, has led the healthy development of IT industries such as computers, mobile phones, and smart TVs. The same is true for the LED industry.

Haitz's law

Mr. Roland of Lumileds Lighting, in 2003, counted the industry data from the first commercial LED in 1965 to the LED in 2003. It also found that the LED brightness doubled every 18 to 24 months.

According to Haitz's law, LEDs with 100 lumens per watt appeared around 2008-2010. In fact, LEDs developed faster. In June 2006, Nichia had mass-produced LED products.

Also using Haitz's law to derive the decade after 2003, that is, the LED brightness in 2013 is 20 times higher than the annual, and the unit price of LED is one-tenth lower than that in 2003. Taking CREE products as an example, in May 2011, CREE launched a 350mA light efficiency of 231lm/W, which spans 2010 and saves 50% of electricity under the same illumination.

The bright prospects of the industry predicted in accordance with the law of H ai tz are like "sick blood needles" for politicians of all countries. Countries all over the world are scrambling to invest heavily in the development of the LED industry. The United States is also half of the government funding for peace of mind. Give OLED.

China’s Sanan Optoelectronics seized the “daytime” policy, and the policy supported a large amount of funds, which was tantamount to winning the lottery. But it is not that companies can win prizes if they buy lottery tickets. Therefore, some blind enterprises can't pick up the capital chain, and they are out of balance with the core technology and the support of the talent team's legs. The fall is everywhere.

Unfinished , please refer to the March issue of Gaogong LED 's " LED Good Products" magazine.

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