The neon swan effect who hunted the electronics industry in Taiwan

In less than five years, Apple Tornado triggered the trend of smart phones and tablet computers. Even the transfer of Steve Jobs, chairman of the soul, did not damage the dazzling light of Apple. It was the brightest and most pleasing in this century. The neon swan that cannot be parried. This neon swan brought a brand new post-PC era and forced Taiwan’s electronics industry to face a crucial moment of change.

When you were young, did you play this game?

After meditation on the "moon" 20 times, if the companion suddenly asked: "What is after the fire?"

Will you always blurt out: "The moon." This is actually an experiment of inertial thinking.

Now, similar experiments are actually being tested by Hon Hai, chairman of Hon Hai, Shi Zhenrong, founder of Acer, and numerous business leaders such as Microsoft founder Bill. The heads of Bill Gates and CEOs of Nokia and Hewlett-Packard.

Lens, pull back to August 24.

On this day, Apple’s board member received a letter from Steve Jobs. He wrote: “I always say that if one day I can no longer fulfill the duties of Apple’s chief executive and meet everyone’s expectations. At the time, I will let you know first. It is a pity that this day has arrived.” Subsequently, Apple issued a news announcement that Steve Jobs will be transferred to the chairmanship and chief operating officer Tim Cook took over as chief executive officer.

The birth of the neon swan species! More terrible than the black swan, Apple is on behalf of August 9, Apple's market value surpassed the oil company Exxon Mobil (Exxon Mobil), becoming the world's largest public company with market value, the soul of Mr. Jobs Lightning resigned as CEO, to the global technology World throws shocking bombs.

However, if you think Jobs's resignation is the end of the Apple era, you are wrong!

The next day after Steve Jobs resigned, Apple's share price fell by nearly 3%, but it immediately fell in a converging manner and fell slightly. In recent days, under the help of a 100-point increase in the US broader market, the company regained US$380. Of the 51 Wall Street analysts, 49 not only gave Apple a "buy" rating, but also had an average target price of 497 US dollars. There is still a 30% rise from the current stock price.

For no reason, "Forbes" columnist Eric Savitz said that Apple will still be alive and well and stocks will fall and buy it right! The consensus among many American critics is that Apple’s prosperity will continue for four to five years. Apple created by Steve Jobs has become the brightest Neon Swan in this century.

The so-called "Neon Swan" is the Wall Street Journal columnist Jason. The new term proposed by Jason Zweig in July 2011 was used to describe the recent economic crisis in Europe and the United States and the key economic events that triggered the second recession.

The term “Neon Swan” and the “Black Swan” (Red Swan), which was popularized during the financial tsunami in 2008, all refer to extremely rare and influential events. However, the difference is that the “Black Swan” is It was unexpected and unpredictable, and the "Neon Swan" was sparkling and told the world long ago: "I am coming!"

Where is the terror? After knowing its next step, Schweg, who had no choice but to accept an exclusive interview with the Journal, observed that when the vast majority of people encountered a truly significant change that was rarely seen in 100 years, even if the symptoms were obvious, most people avoided risk. Thinking skills are lost.

“The human mind is often unprepared when it comes to truly rare, important and unpredictable things,” he said. “Our mind and our market are not ready to face the challenge of the neon swan. ”

At present, Taiwanese companies are not willing to take it lightly in the face of Apple's rise and Steve Jobs' departure. Because for three years, this "swan" really scared Taiwan!

History will talk: The iPod first helped defeat the consumer electronics giant Sony who invented the Walkman, and also with Hollywood's music industry rivals and friends: Apple’s iTunes threatens the business opportunities of physical records while perpetuating The first $0.35 buys song software from Hollywood and sells it to consumers for $0.99.

The iPad launched in 2010 was even more terrible. In just one year, it ended the booming Netbook (NetBook). It once threatened the existence of Amazon, the leading online bookstore, and triggered a sharp setback in its share price, even in China's e-books. The benchmark company, Hanwang, is not immune.

As early as Steve Jobs announced his resignation as chief executive of Apple, the latest victim of neon swan has another one: Hewlett-Packard, the world's largest personal computer company. On August 18, HP announced its intention to sell and spin off the personal computer division. When the news came out, Hewlett-Packard's share price tumbled more than 20%, hitting a new low in six years, and the market value evaporated 1.2 billion US dollars a day.

Since 2007, Hewlett-Packard has purchased more than US$20 billion worth of goods from Taiwan each year, and more than US$25 billion in 2010. It has completely lost its power when Taiwan announced that it would withdraw from the PC battlefield and allow it to develop OEMs for almost 30 years.

Apple is not launching new products now. In the past 3 or 4 years, Taiwan has been witnessing the emergence of this neon swan from the storm. Why can't it just help?

Schweiger's observation is very interesting: When the neon swan appeared, most people's first reaction was: Pretend not to see. Although this observation is not consistent with the character of Taiwanese operators who are always fragile, the actual observation of the three-year response may be really “not seen”.

Taiwan, where is wrong? Inertial thinking is ambiguous, and it is precisely behind Taiwan’s collective inertial thinking that it is too late to “see”. Like, the relationship between the "moon" and the "postscript".

In the past, Taiwan’s technology manufacturing industry had been successful for 30 years by relying on “cheaper”, “higher-order hardware specifications,” and “the fastest way to develop products based on the architecture of Wintel (Intel and Microsoft).”

But now, when it comes to this "new swan," we first take this set of inertial thinking out to measure, "Apple's iPhone and iPad, the hardware specifications are too simple, even the USB slot is not, even the battery can not change, who Nothing will be charging everywhere..." This is the average person's initial assessment.

As soon as Apple sells, we quickly introduce cheaper, higher-profile tablet computers, such as Hewlett-Packard also launched the Slate computer, but sales are far less than Apple. Worse still, the Wintel camp has nothing to do. Intel's Ultrabook specification will not be released until the end of the year. Microsoft seems to have a Windows 8 operating system that will not be seen until next year.

Even if it is determined to do differentiation, but Apple has led the trend of software-based, allowing consumers to buy a tablet computer, only thinking, this is the Android system or Apple's iTunes platform, each computer product is wearing the same uniform, "Now the computers are all similar in performance, comparable, probably only the packaging box!" A marketing executive in the technology industry smiled.

The habit of failure for 30 years of success, everyone looked at this neon swan, a loss.

The scene, pulled back to Taiwan's Zhonghe Industrial Zone, was once a Hewlett-Packard concept stock, host board factory MSI Technology in a executive meeting in August.

The MSI with a stock price of up to 280 yuan in 2000 has recently approached the coupon price of 10 yuan. The revenue for several months was significantly lower than the same period of last year. Staff morale was low. Executives looked at Chairman Xu Xiang and looked forward to hearing encouraging words from his mouth.

However, Xu Xiang, who could have said good things, could not say anything. Internally, he said: The current situation is too uncertain, and any expansion should stop. Xu Xiang’s plight is also a portrayal of Taiwan’s entire PC supply chain.

New Rule No. 1: There is no standard answer The boss reshuffles the card. Differentiation can win the past. There are Intel and Microsoft who are all clear about the future product appearance. The Taiwanese technology industry is like a group of good students in class A. The tutor said that the procedures were copied one by one to maximize the effectiveness and minimize the cost. As long as the instructor's expectations are met, good results can be achieved.

But now, the rules of the game have completely changed.

"You see the whole world, even the CPU (central processing unit), even the operating system (operating system), are now reshuffled again," said Shi Chongxi, chairman of Asustek Computer, waving his hands and saying, "I am Think this is a big change!" New survival rules are forming.

First: This is a world without standard answers. This change, and even the past mentors in Taiwan's scientific and technological circles: Intel and Microsoft must strive to survive. Shi Chongxi described that under this major change, there has been no standard answer.

In the past, if Taiwanese industrialists only knew how to write “fill in the blanks,” they would get basic scores. Now it is time to learn how to answer the topic.

This requires courage, vision and imagination.

Asustek, who had just held the Law Society on August 26th, achieved a 5.9% profit rate in the second quarter, a record high since the financial tsunami. This benefited from the new product launched this year, “Transformers,” and this product can be taken apart. When the tablet computer is carried around, an external keyboard can also be used as a notebook computer. The specification of this product has never appeared in Wintel's product blueprint. It is strange to call it, but this is the answer to the question written by ASUS when facing a new product of the “new network generation”.

In fact, the unity or family business near your home is also writing down the answers to their questions. Over the past few years, Taiwan's Super Business Exhibition Stores have reached the extreme, becoming the most densely populated areas in the world. In addition, the rise of online shops such as PChome (Internet home) also eats some of the supermarket business opportunities. However, the solution to the unified selection is to discard the Bible that they believe to have the highest efficiency in the past, and increase the number of coffee and dining seats in reverse. Even providing spacious toilets for customers to use, on the surface, they are wasting space, but in essence, they let the guests stay longer and create more revenue!

This is a choice between thoughts. For Taiwan's science and technology industry, of course, everyone can also choose to follow this neon swan's footsteps and be dominated by the latter.

It's just an easy task to make Apple's money! In particular, Steve Jobs’s successor, Cook, is the global supply chain management (GSM) department that oversees the internal preparation of thousands of people at Apple. He supervises the price, delivery date, and quality of all suppliers. In early August, a touch panel company When the representative of the Apple Supply Chain Department came to visit, he said, "If you want to take orders, you have to find ways to cut prices by 20% within 3 months."

After the departure of the Apple representative, the executives can be incredible. Not only will the gross profit margin in the first quarter be reduced by about 5 percentage points, but the annual earnings per share may also be reduced by 20% to 30%. However, at the end of last year, China’s factory had invested hundreds of millions of dollars in big orders for the “potential” orders of the Apple iPad. This time with the apple "sayno", take someone's order to make up?

New Rule No.2: There is no M-shaped M-benefit in the middle zone. If you want to make money, you will rely on analysis of exclusive technology vendors. When Cook reaches the first battle of Apple’s new CEO, it will be the new iPhone 5 that will be listed in October and will feature higher prices and higher prices. , Or pricing may be lower than the NT$6000 parity iPhone4S. Regardless of where a trend goes, Cook must make sales of new products beyond the records of the Jobs era in order to gain a firm footing. Therefore, the test faced by the supply chain in Taiwan will only be greater.

"Apple, Samsung, and these brand factories will slowly and critically grasp the key technologies," said a computer company executive who was worried that the future could not find a new direction. "In the old days, there were still many people relying on them. The kings and nobles who have lived through a single technology; in the new era, these people will disappear, leaving only the 'master (brand)' and 'slavery (manufacturing)'."

In fact, this supervisor pointed out the second survival rule of the new generation: there is no middle ground. You can see from the story of Borders, the second largest bookstore chain in the United States.

In July 2011, Borders, the second largest bookstore chain in the United States, revealed that it would close down completely until the end of September, and its 399 bookstores will all be closed. Under the impact of e-books, the value of physical bookstores has fallen, and similar content has to be obtained to make it faster and more convenient on the Internet. At the same time, Amazon, the world's largest online bookstore, is making revisions to its Kindle e-books. Its second-quarter revenue surged 51%, hitting a 10-year record.

When the rules of the game are rewritten, even if the trend is undecided, if you have values ​​that are difficult for others to replace, you can stand firm and follow the changes, not just passively.

Parade, which has been collaborating with Apple for many years, had a revenue of only 1.6 billion yuan last year, relying on exclusive global high-speed transmission and display integration technologies. It has not yet been hacked by Apple and its gross profit has exceeded 40%. Each time Apple develops new products, it will also discuss with Spectrum.

Chairman of Spectrum Rui Zhao Jie said that the global exclusive, plus a solid patent wall protection body in the field of high-speed transmission and display technology. Therefore, to avoid the internal chip design team with one or two thousand people inside Apple, they never thought of jumping off and doing the product.

Chen Huiming, head of Asia's high-tech research department at Daiwa Research Institute, thinks: "No matter how the brand grows, if you can only do products in a specific area, you must have the ability to make the brand factory use it for you. It is better to use global technology alone. The customer will only care about your delivery date and will not cut your price."

New Rule 3: Higher costs of not innovating Even if you make mistakes, you can accumulate the third survival rule of experience. This is also the reality that Taiwan needs to face most: the cost of non-innovation is higher than innovation.

This is indeed different from the inertia of Taiwan in the past. Because innovation usually takes risks, and risking means you can make mistakes. This is almost a different mindset for Taiwan where everything is talking about "goodness."

“Our education tells us to make fewer mistakes. However, in Silicon Valley, failure is like a scar on a soldier. Everyone will openly and even proudly say that I have done something,” said Lin Zhichen, the founder of Venture Capital. .

In the wave of Apple-led mobile applications (Apps), more and more Taiwanese young people want to start their own businesses, but how to coexist with failure is an unfamiliar lesson for them. Failure to learn will miss the value of failure.

"Failure is like a (successful) puzzle." Ville Heijari, vice president of Rovio, the world's most successful app game Angry Birds, said that if there were no previous 51 games developed Experience tells consumers what they don't want? Where a technology can do better, there will not be a paragraph 52, which is the success of Angry Birds.

In the “Innovation and Entrepreneurship” published in 1985, Peter Drucker, master of management, wrote: In a stable era, organizations must do a better job, but change. In this era, we must do things in different ways.

Indeed, the risk of innovation is high, but Dulac says, “There is also a risk of driving to the supermarket to buy bread. All economic activities are high-risk. To defend the past — that is, the risk of not innovating is more than creating the risk of the future. Much higher."

Your mentality will change! Jumping out of inertial thinking, learning from the new perspective of the industry Acer's lesson is in sight. The difference between Asustek and Acer division is that Acer allocated the R&D department to Wistron, which is mainly foundry. However, Asustek left the R&D department within the brand. This has caused Shi Chonghan to suffer from external doubts.

But in 2010, Steve Jobs's neon swans flew to the Internet, launched the iPad, Acer proud of the sales model faced a bottleneck, personnel organizations followed a major change, the second quarter hit a loss of 6.7 billion yuan, Wang Zhen, chairman of Wang Sheng Direct announcement: This year will not make money. This is Acer's focus on cost savings, neglect of innovation, and the high price paid in the neon swan era.

In the face of new neon swans, you have many choices.

You can follow the logic of the past and continue to make orders passively. “Taiwan's electronics manufacturing industry can still survive, but it will only be a bit harder and harder.” The reason for Wu Tianyu, chief operating officer of Sun Moonlight, who observes industry trends for many years, is that there were four or five bosses checking against each other, but now Apple is the only one. Businessmen can't avoid being asked for permission.

You can also learn to break away from the past and always follow the path of "wearing it." Because the neon swan is like the iPhone, it does not follow the convention and breaks the product after the framework.

To welcome this new generation, “your most important skill is to play another movie in your mind (meaning the imaginary plot): imagine yourself as a person observing from the outside, see the whole situation, and re-evaluate from the role of the third party Status," said Schwinger.

If you recognize the future of the neon swan event will be more and more. When supermarkets can erode the laundry business, online stores are beginning to replace supermarkets, and Apple has become the world's largest music retail store. What you need to do most is to start bravely imagining the future. Perhaps the next neon swan is You create.

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