TD-LTE climax completely reverses 4G prospects and pinches sweat

Although 4G licenses have not yet been issued, they are less than two months old at best. Since the end of June, the two operators of China Telecom and China Unicom have stated that they want to use TD-LTE in densely populated and high-traffic areas, which shows that they have made wise decisions to respond to national independent innovation and national policies. Operators have clarified their plans to use TD-LTE for 4G network construction, which has inspired the long-awaited entire TD industry chain.

People expect that once the 4G license is issued, it will inevitably set off a climax in the construction of a TD-LTE network in China, and form a unified TD-LTE network in China. What changes have been made to the status of mobile, China Unicom, and telecommunications after the issuance of 4G licenses? What will the future 4G market structure of operators be like?

Changes in the field of mobile communications

In the past two months, the three major operators have been vigorously preparing for the future of 4G. The first is that China Mobile is advancing its double hundred plan; bidding 200,000 base stations to deploy in 100 cities, purchasing 1 million terminals for trial commercial use. Although the 4G network has not been formally tested for commercial use, the China Mobile branches in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have taken a step forward. They have taken the lead in rushing to start the 4G number distribution work before the 11th National Day and began accepting users to reserve 4G monthly fee packages. Next, Qingdao Mobile's 4G network was officially opened on the 11th. The major mobile business offices in the four districts of the city can handle 4G mobile phones and high-speed Internet services. The number of customers for the first day has exceeded 1,000. In the early stage of commercial trial, it showed the advantages of downloading movies in less than a minute, as long as a "small box" WiFi is convenient to carry, no need to change the number for business, simple package, preferential packages and so on. The 4G tariff currently set by China Mobile will give users more data traffic. Comparing the current 3G tariffs of the three major operators, it is found that the average 4G tariff is lower than 3G. If the trial commercial and official commercial use, China Mobile can maintain such 4G tariffs, or lower tariffs, will quickly attract a large number of users to use the 4G network. This will help China Mobile's future development, and may have a big impact on China Unicom and China Telecom.

Secondly, China Telecom started to prepare for the bidding for LTE equipment in July 2013, and entrusted China Telecom Design Institute (Guangzhou Institute) to prepare for the bidding. The preliminary bidding plan was formed at the end of July. China Telecom issued to the equipment manufacturer on August 30 Invitation for bidding, return to technical bid on September 11, manufacturers return to commercial bid on September 22, and China Telecom issued a notice of bidding results to various vendors on September 30 (each enterprise has prepared the goods according to relevant notices and will soon ship). Judging from the bidding results announced by China Telecom, the total scale of this equipment bidding is about 60,000 base stations. Among them, nearly 50,000 LTE FDD base stations and more than 10,000 TD-LTE base stations, the ratio is about 4: 1; from the perspective of carrier frequency, a total of more than 140,000 LTE FDD carrier frequencies are tendered, less than 30,000 TD-LTE Carrier frequency, the ratio is about 4.8: 1. Among them, LTE FDD provides wide area coverage, involving 60 cities in 30 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government, and purchases LTE FDD / CDMA200 / GSM / WCDMA four-mode mobile phones. The TD-LTE network only covers urban hotspots, involving 56 cities in 30 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government; it only purchases TD-LTE data terminals.

As far as the impact is concerned, China Unicom could not stand still, and began to prepare for the bidding for LTE equipment in the second half of the year. Before the end of the telecom bidding, Unicom plans to build 15-20 thousand TD-LTE base stations this year. It is reported that the bidding scale of TD-LTE base stations has been reduced to 10,000.

In this way, people expect that the climax of the domestic construction of the TD-LTE network will be completely reversed.

License and Spectrum

Let's first look at the relationship between license plates and spectrum. China's license is closely related to spectrum allocation. Whatever mobile communication standard is engaged, the spectrum corresponding to it is allocated. Unlike the practice of auctioning licenses and spectrum abroad, China's spectrum resources are divided uniformly, so there is no license fee to purchase. Operators only need to pay a small amount of usage fees when using spectrum resources. If the operator's business develops rapidly, it can apply for more spectrum resources. At present, it is not released in one time, but distributed according to actual needs.

On January 7, 2009, the country decided to issue three 3G licenses simultaneously, covering the three technical systems recommended by ITU in 2000, which is unique in the world. China Mobile operates TD-SCDMA, operating in A-band (2010-2025MHz, bandwidth 15MHz), E-band (2320-2370MHz, bandwidth 50MHz) and F-band (1880-1900MHz, bandwidth 20MHz); China Unicom operates WCDMA, operating in 1940 -1955MHz / 2130-2145MHz, bandwidth 15 & TImes; 2MHz; China Telecom operates cdma2000, operating at 825MHz-835MHz / 870MHz-880MHz, bandwidth 10 & TImes; 2MHz.

Get different spectrums that match the standard for free. The key to the issuance of 4G licenses during the year is the scientific allocation and rational application of TD-LTE spectrum. In order to strengthen the spectrum resources of TDD, in 2012, China divided the D frequency band 2500-2690Hz, with a bandwidth of 190MHz, it is conceivable that the three major operators will be evenly distributed, and each can get a bandwidth of 63.33 MHz, considering that a certain margin should be left to In the future, the increase will be allocated to operators with rapid business development, or to new operators. Therefore, it is impossible to split all at once. When the TD-LTE networks built by the three companies have fully developed into heavy-duty networks, and the capacity has been unable to meet the rapidly growing data services, the country will consider taking out the FDD spectrum and issuing LTE-FDD licenses. Now no one knows that this is the year of the monkey. At present, China Telecom has recruited nearly 50,000 LTE FDD base stations. The country has not issued LTE FDD licenses, and therefore has not allocated LTE FDD frequency bands. The available LTE FDD frequency bands in our country are 1.8GHz (1755-1785MHz / 1850-1880MHz, bandwidth 30MHz) and 2.1GHz (1955-1980MHz / 2145-2170MHz, bandwidth 25MHz).

Which segment is allocated to China Telecom, and which segment is allocated to China Unicom, at least no one knows today, then the LTE FDD equipment being tendered at this stage can only be risked as 1.8GHz. What will this adventure bring? Historical lessons may have two very different results, which are worth learning.

One of the adventure results-smashing the pot

In 2005, the international interest group saw the progress of TD industrialization, and the situation was unfavorable to it, so it took any means to take advantage of TD's development of the industrial environment is not yet ripe, and showed domestic operators a generous equipment gift intention, to lure them to view WCDMA as interest For the sake of sweets and buns, to follow the trend; support China Mobile, China Telecom and China Netcom to secretly construct WCDMA networks in major cities across the country. At that time, more than 30 first-tier cities in the country built more than 80 networks, all within the fourth ring of Beijing It's already set. And these networks are still expanding rapidly, and some areas have been fully covered, as long as a WCDMA license is issued, the number can be immediately operated.

This illegal and illegal practice is essentially the practice of deploying 3G European standards for commercial use in China in the name of experimentation, before the launch of the Chinese 3G market, to achieve the de facto "Europeanization" of China's 3G system equipment market. The seriousness of the consequences lies in the fact that China ’s trillion-dollar 3G system equipment market will be occupied by WCDMA, the TD industry chain built over the years, and a series of historic breakthroughs made in independent innovation in the field of mobile communication core technology. East flow, TD will be stillborn.

I was shocked when I learned about this news from the Xinhua News Agency and the Internet at the time. On December 19, 2005, I jointly presented with Researcher Jin Luzhong the Premier Wen's "Emergency Report Reflecting the Secret Large-Scale Construction of WCDMA Networks by Three Major Operators." Urge the country to immediately stop such violations. On December 21, Premier Wen replied, requesting the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Information Industry to jointly investigate and deal with it, and seeing the report, the WCDMA network illegally constructed by the operator was eventually dismantled.

If at this stage China Telecom ’s secretly constructed LTE FDD network is banned by the country and all will be dismantled, then operators or manufacturers will suffer losses.

Another result-fluke

In 2000, in order to compete, it was correct for the telecom operation industry to split up and reorganize; but to split by its business, let China Mobile specialize in mobile phones with market prospects, and restrict China Telecom to only specialize in fixed-line telephones that are thin and mountainous, contrary to "mobile The rule of "beyond the fixed" is wrong.

Since the reorganization, users, business volume and revenue have all slowed down in fixed business, mobile business has soared, market share has been concentrated in advantageous companies, and the market concentration index (HHI) has increased year by year. Mobile is getting bigger and bigger, and fixed is getting smaller and smaller. Over the past five years, it has formed a very unbalanced pattern of a single big company.

Under this regulatory policy, in 2001, Xiaolingtong, named in the name of wireless access, was forced to play the policy sideline. At the beginning, the network construction operation began in Yuhang, Zhejiang. The national regulatory authority opened one eye and closed the other. It was able to expand from a small city to a medium-sized city, and the regulatory authorities only paid attention to it, but it was too big to end. It was too late, and then to penetrate the big city to the suburbs of the capital Beijing, and finally entered the city, which was not technologically advanced. The digital cordless telephone PHS system has rapidly developed users based on the advantage of one-way low fixed tariffs, forming a national network, which has soared to nearly 37 million in 2003 and nearly doubled in 2004, even more advanced than China Unicom ’s advanced CDMA system. The speed is still fast. In some years, some cities even have the phenomenon that the fixed-phone disassembly rate is higher than the installation rate. PHS has contributed more than half of the increase in fixed-line users.

During the heyday of the wireless market in October 2006, it reached 93.415 million households. Since the end of 2006, mobile phone tariffs have been reduced, and the advantages of PHS have been increasingly lost, and its users have been lost month by month. At the end of 2007, the number of wireless local telephone users decreased by 6.583 million to 84.544 million.

If China's fixed-line subscribers continue to reduce the intensity of 3.86 million households at the end of 2007, especially after the roaming fee declines, the possibility of a net decline to 50 million households in 2008 is very high. Mobile phones will continue to erode wireless local calls at a high speed, which will exacerbate the imbalanced pattern. If no positive measures are taken, fixed-line operators will be caught in a rather difficult situation!

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