A book called The Age of Robots recently won the McKinsey "Best Business Book" award. What is disturbing is the subtitle of the book, the British version of "the threat of mass unemployment" and the US version of "a future of unemployment." The main point of the book is that from the manufacturing to the professional services sector, more and more people are worried that automation will have a negative impact on employment.
This is not a new assertion, from well-known scientist Hawking, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, to Tesla and SpaceX Space Exploration Technologies founder Elon Musk, they all mentioned that intelligent robots or Replace or even rule the rule of mankind. Some American Hollywood film and television works such as "Star Wars" even tell the robot attack on humans.
In reality, robots are far less intelligent. At present, robots are still generally operating under human-set programs, and the things they can do are relatively simple. However, the industry generally believes that with the continuous development of information technology and the improvement of computing performance, robots will be able to undertake more work to help people extend their capabilities.
It is precisely because of this that the robot will replace some people's daily work, and this has caused Martin Ford's concerns. The collapse of the manufacturing industry and the dilution of the demographic dividend have given companies a preference for robots to replace artificial new production models.
Impressively, Hon Hai’s Chairman, Guo Taiming, proposed the “Million Robot Project†in 2011. He had envisioned using 1 million robots on the Foxconn production line in 2014. Although there are still gaps in the final goal, it is a reality for the manufacturing industry to replace artificial labor in some parts.
In the corresponding consumer market, service robots, especially single-function devices related to smart homes, have matured. In this year's Double Eleven Shopping Festival, a sweeping robot entered the top ten online home appliance sales, and even surpassed the hot electronic products such as Xiaomi Mobile and Skyworth TV. Maybe one day, human beings are not just at work, but the whole life is full of various robots.
However, in the half century of development, the global robots currently have less than 2 million units. This is very small for any industry. Therefore, people in the industry have also begun to reflect on whether the development of the robot industry and the impact of the hot speculation should be lowered?
Enjoy policy dividends globally
After the emergence of industrial robots in 1961, the entire global industrial system began to change. Various types of robots have been introduced in the manufacturing process of the automotive, electronics, metal, rubber and other industries. People believe that robots are one of the greatest technological inventions of the 20th century. Especially after the 2008 financial crisis, the robot industry has grown against the trend. Relevant data shows that its global growth rate averages around 30%, and in China this figure is higher to 50% to 60%.
Arturo Baroncelli, president of the International Robot Alliance, said after the global market research, sales of industrial robots reached 230,000 in 2014, and will grow by 15% in 2015, and this growth trend will remain until 2018. The forecast for service robots will exceed 15 million units in the next three years, with sales exceeding 20 billion.
Behind the high growth rate is actually the enthusiasm of governments and enterprises for smart manufacturing.
Japan is a leader in robot production, R&D and use. In order to solve the problem of labor shortage and aging population, the development of robots has received much attention. In 2015, the Japanese government adopted the “New Robot Strategy†and decided to focus on the development of the robot industry in the next five years. To achieve this strategy, the Japanese government will support financial, taxation, education and law.
As the first country in the world to invent robots, the United States has long had the problem of “heavy theory and light applicationâ€. However, since the late 1970s, the US government began to lift restrictions on industrial robot applications, and then began to force in the 1980s. The Obama administration launched the Advanced Manufacturing Partnership Program in 2011, investing $2.8 billion to boost US manufacturing by developing industrial robots.
The EU invested heavily in robotics R&D in the “Seventh Framework Plan†and “Horizon 2020†projects, and in 2014 launched the civil robot R&D program “SPARCâ€. Not only that, but European countries have also launched corresponding robot development strategies. Among them, Germany's investment in “Industry 4.0†will account for more than 50% of the investment in the corresponding solutions in the next five years; the UK released its first official robot strategy “RAS (Robot Technology and Automation System) 2020â€, which will be used for 257 million US dollars. Here, the French “Robot Development Plan†achieves the goal of “becoming the top five in the world of robotics by 2020â€.
The Korean robot industry has also developed rapidly in recent years. After the release of the first five-year plan for the development of the robot industry in 2009, the Korean government announced its second five-year plan in 2014, hoping to expand the robot industry through the integration of technology and other industries.
The Chinese robot industry is entering the policy honeymoon period. Not only the top government has realized that the robot industry is strategically important for the development of smart society, and relevant specific policies are being formulated. It is reported that the relevant "13th Five-Year Plan" draft has been basically completed, and the relevant supporting policies of "Made in China 2025" are also being accelerated. Relevant departments will also introduce and implement 33 special plans for each segment.
According to reports, there are more than 30 robot development zones and industrial parks in China, more than 100 listed companies with robot concepts, and thousands of robots related to robots, including 700 to 800 influential companies. In fact, China has become the world's largest robot market for two consecutive years, but at present China's relatively high-end market is still monopolized by foreign companies.
Robots drive industrial upgrading
From the perspective of the main functions and features of the robot, it is constantly improving to more vertical areas.
FANUC is a Japanese company specializing in CNC systems, founded in 1956. It is the world's largest professional CNC system manufacturer, accounting for 70% of the global market share. Similar companies include Epson, Yaskawa Electric and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, which mostly entered the field earlier and focused on the industrial robot market. FANUC and Yaskawa Electric are the second largest robot companies in the world today.
On the other hand, the Japanese robot industry has expanded to service robots. In 2015, Japan's Softbank and Taiwan's Hon Hai and Alibaba launched the humanoid robot Pepper, which has the ability to recognize expressions and dialogues, which can be used to guide and care for elderly patients. In fact, a number of Japanese companies have launched humanoid robots ranging in price from tens of thousands of dollars to millions of dollars.
The European industry's annual investment of 140 billion euros makes it a leader in industrial robots and medical robots. Germany's KUKA and Swiss-based ABB are also among the top four robots in the world. ABB was engaged in the electrical equipment motor business in the early days. At the beginning, KUKA was engaged in the welding equipment business, and eventually grew into a comprehensive industrial automation enterprise, mastering the key technologies of the robot body and some core components.
It can be seen that the robot will be integrated with big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other technologies. The United States will lead a new revolution in the robotics industry with a major technological breakthrough in the latter. In recent years, the United States has begun to exert its strength in the field of robotics. Enterprises such as Baxter and Adept have already invested in the challenges of the four traditional robot companies.
Unlike robots that replace labor, the introduction of information technology, biotechnology, and nanomaterial technology has enabled robots to have the foundation to expand human capabilities. Currently, 90% of industrial robots are used in automobile manufacturing, and although service robots have been optimistic, they have not developed for many years. However, the industry still believes that in some areas robots will explode new energy in the next few years.
With the improvement of technology and the sensitivity of robot operation, robots will generate more value in the field of biomedicine than cars, because robots can improve economic benefits in terms of new drug development. At the same time, autonomous driving and agricultural applications are also considered to be commercially valuable markets, and the upgrade and replacement of existing solutions by robots is urgently needed.
Alois C. Knoll, a professor at the Technical University of Munich in Germany, said that the ability to access information and share, calculate and process at any time, and the development of deep learning and artificial intelligence technology, enabling functions such as evasion barriers, The development of the aspect brings a qualitative change to the robot.
Lynne Parker, a professor at the University of Tennessee, has a similar view. In her view, the Internet of Things has provided a new direction for robots, and the cloud robot will gain a more advantageous development foundation.
It is too early to replace artificial
However, behind the government's emphasis and industry prospects, the problems encountered by the robot industry itself cannot be ignored. Although the robot industry is in a period of rapid development, the global robot inventory is less than one-tenth of the annual output of the Chinese automobile industry; the global average robot density is only 0.62%, which means that 99.38% of the work is still done by people.
Recently, Guangdong Province officially announced that it will promote 1950 industrial enterprises above designated size to carry out “machine substitution†from 2015 to 2017, and select leading enterprises to carry out “smart factory cultivation and construction pilotâ€, and prepare to invest 943 billion yuan for 3 years. Industrial technology transformation.
But the fact is that robots are expensive and difficult to spread out over a large area. Some small electronic business owners in Dongguan once told the media that production is still more dependent on labor. It is not that they do not want to introduce automation, but the cost is too high. A workshop is close to one million, and companies without strength do not want to think about it. Some media reports said that the price of a single robot in the Pearl River Delta region is below 200,000 yuan, and the price of a robot system is between 2 million and 3 million yuan.
At the same time, local government management also realized that machine substitution is not involving all enterprises and all processes. There are many links that machines can't do, and workers still need to operate. In some production stages, workers only need about 10 minutes to get familiar with the assembly process, and robots need professional engineers to rewrite programs and debug, which is even more time-consuming.
The function and performance of robot products are not yet able to meet the rigid demand for mass production in manufacturing. Taking industrial robots as an example, not only lacks the perception system, but also lacks a flexible operating system in some aspects. In the production, the robot can complete the programmed prescriptive action, but it is very difficult for the robot to operate flexibly for the labor in the typical labor.
Xinhuanet reported that a mouse manufacturer in the Pearl River Delta invested about 2 million yuan and purchased 75 robots for production, but it was all broken in less than a month. The reason is that these robots were originally used in automobile manufacturing, and the precision movement frequency used to produce the mouse is much higher than that of the welding car.
In addition, the safety of robots is also a factor affecting the development of this industry. Some large robots are difficult to collaborate with others. Their operations need to be isolated from people, and even need to be protected by iron cages. This has also led to the inability of some industries to introduce robots.
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