"Industry 4.0" will open an era of unprecedented intelligent manufacturing, but this will not lead to the discoloration of the entire industrial system overnight. Smart manufacturing is actually a "soft transition", or it is a "soft manufacturing" "Continuous innovation, evolution process.
Softness, also known as "flexibility," is an antonym of "rigidity." At present, there is a misunderstanding in "Industry 4.0" or "Made in China 2025". That is to mention that it is a highly automated pipeline that can be seen. It is considered that intelligent manufacturing is the application of industrial robots, CNC machine tools and intelligence on a large scale. Advanced equipment such as sensors.
As everyone knows, the more it is, the more it is trapped in another big dilemma: rigid automation, and there is a tendency to get deeper and deeper.
The rigid automation environment not only fails to reach “Industry 4.0â€, but also runs counter to the automation equipment. The more rigid it is, the more difficult it is to adapt to market changes, mainly in the three levels of technology, management and supply chain:
Technical rigidity: In fact, the concept of the industrial 2.0 era, that is, large-scale investment in the transformation of the factory assembly line, in the 3.0 era, the integration of automation and information technology into the production line, the possible quality problems are greatly reduced, and the cost is accurate Controllable. (In this part, most of China's manufacturing enterprises need to make up their classes, but they don't have to follow the old roads of Europe and the United States.) Because when the 3.0 era solved the two major problems of cost and quality, another more important problem emerged: that is, the softness of production is insufficient. The automation line produces only standard products. When a production line is fully automated, the flexibility is also lost. Once the market demand and product types change, the hardware replacement cost (including the related tooling, fixtures, measuring tools, and processes) Documents, etc.) are very high. In today's era of personalized acceleration becoming a trend, "rigid automation" is increasingly difficult to adapt to the ever-shrinking product life cycle.
Management rigidity: Why are some Chinese factories still inferior in terms of production efficiency and market adaptability without the loss of automation? This is more of a management issue. The professional division of labor in Chinese factories is very detailed, and even refined to the process, the decisive factors become proficiency, not professional level. In the case of a large number of industrial enterprises in China, the level of automation is constantly improving, and the organization of personnel is limited. Many Chinese factories have too many management levels, and the management level is determined by the number of people. The factories in China are complex, the division of functions is detailed, and each department has managers. The finer the division of labor, the more management personnel need to coordinate. The European and American factories are basically one-level management, or the manager is a person. In Europe and the United States, several people's factories are very common. European and American factories pay attention to "process management". The advantage of process stability is efficient and orderly; while most factories in China are "process management", many people are busy. It is always the production line that adapts to the product and adapts to the market, rather than adapting the product and market to the production line. Once the market demand changes, the product design changes greatly, the Chinese factory will mobilize a large number of personnel to adjust a large number of processes, and European and American factories only need to coordinate a small number of personnel to adjust the corresponding process. Often technical rigidity is not the most difficult to overcome, and the problem of managing rigidity is the most difficult to solve, because it will touch the interests of insiders.
Supply Chain Rigidity: Even the most technically unproductive product assembly involves very complex supply chain management. To know that a mobile phone has about 100 spare parts, and a car's spare parts do not include more than 7,000 screws and nuts. The difficulty of this supply chain management has created a very big test for manufacturers. The bigger test is how to make the supply chain run faster than the market situation. There is a famous "beer game" in supply chain management, which means that small changes in market demand will be amplified by the chain, and finally reflected in the supply chain and the manufacturer's inventory like dominoes. Retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers, the intention of either party is good, and they want to meet the market demand and keep the products flowing smoothly in the system and avoid losses. However, because of the barrier between manufacturers and consumers, market information is transmitted to the production process, which is slow and fragmented. Manufacturers often see changes in consumer demand from orders in a few months.
Before this, manufacturers had to hoard the main raw materials and parts in order not to lose the opportunity to sell products. The rapid increase in product cost will inevitably lead to a sharp increase in product prices. As a result, sales volume will drop sharply, and product prices will start to fall like roller coasters, and production will begin. Cycles are often impossible to adjust overnight, which inevitably leads to a backlog of finished goods and raw parts, which are costly. As a result of the sharp fall in market prices, profits have plummeted. To make matters worse, the inventory takes up cash, the week shifts slowly, and the liquidity crisis of the company comes one after another.
Supply chain rigidity is very serious in the industrial 2.0 era. The production methods of large-volume, large-scale, and fixed-process pipelines always face a big risk. Market demand is increasingly fluctuating along the supply chain, and sales speed and production speed are severe. Disjointed, inventory backlog and liquidity exhaustion have become a nightmare for manufacturers. Therefore, industrial entrepreneurs are all striving to pursue soft manufacturing (or flexible manufacturing, agile manufacturing), to achieve the pace of production and sales speed.
Soft manufacturing, in the present and for some time to come, will become the inevitable result of upgrading and transforming the manufacturing industry and realizing supply-side reform.
“Traditional enterprises must change from the past 'fixed targets' to 'moving targets' or even 'flying saucers'.†- Zhang Ruimin, Chairman of Haier Board of Directors
"In the future, China's labor-intensive industries that are mass-produced and low-cost-winning will be unstoppable in Southeast Asia. The only thing that can be left in China is the small-volume, customized soft manufacturing capacity." - State Council Counselor Tang Min
Second, the soft manufacturing under the Internet thinkingThe tide of mobile Internet is in the ascendant. What it changes is not the trend of personalization of demand. It just makes this trend have been concentrated since ancient times. The unprecedented acceleration has subverted various industries and allowed the new model to bend with the power of revolution. Road overtaking.
“People’s pursuit of personalization has existed since ancient times. Private customization always means high-end, taste and elegance. Various industries have long-established workshops that have been passed down for generations. But they can be customized and industrialized. It can be called soft manufacturing."
In the era of mobile Internet, Tencent CEO Ma Huateng once judged that the new generation of information technology is infiltrating from the “value transfer link (front)†to the “value creation link (backstage)â€, which has greatly upgraded the traditional industry. The value creation process of “backstage†includes supply chain, design, assembly line, inventory and so on. The "backstage" of Leng Bing has been far from the consumer, and now it is not only close, but also has emotion and temperature.
Another revolution in the Internet and mobile Internet is to force the value creation process, that is, the manufacturing process to continuously improve the production mode, to soften the flexibility and flexibility, and to adapt to the concentrated demand of “a small number of extreme fashionsâ€. This point is becoming more and more a consensus of people of insight.
The Internet has always been known for liberating consumers, but it has not improved much on the producer side. Why can't manufacturers lock users through the Internet? Because most manufacturing plants are still a black box that consumers can't understand, there are ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning), CRM (Customer Relationship Management), e-commerce platform outside the box... everything is clear, people can even see every courier Real-time positioning of the staff. But once you enter the black box of the factory, everyone will have a black eye, which step of each product is produced, the source of each component of each product, the working status of each worker, the quality and traceability of the product... except Manufacturing workers and planners are a bit of a mind, and even the general manager does not know the real situation, because he is always faced with a complex system built by countless factors.
Can't lock users, what about soft manufacturing, what about personalized customization? Can't open the factory "black box", how to lock the user?
Breaking through the “black box†of the factory, it is not necessary to transparently present every manufacturing detail and all process steps of the factory floor to the user, but to make the factory no longer closed and isolated – from upstream raw materials to end products, The long-term value of manufacturing is to help downstream customers make money. From the terminal to the upstream, it is necessary to efficiently communicate changes in user demand to every link in the industry chain.
In the transformation process of “Internet + Manufacturingâ€, C2M (Customer to Manufactory) has become a hot spot and mainstream in the near future. However, not every manufacturer has a strong “retail†capability, and branding requires continuous efforts and long-term costs. The biggest test to realize the C2M model is whether it can achieve "industry chain coordination", which is also the biggest bottleneck to break through the "black box" of the factory.
What is "industry chain synergy"? To put it bluntly, it is six words: it is produced on time and on demand. What your upstream provides to you is exactly what you need. What you make is exactly what you need downstream. There is no waste in the middle, no stagnation, no backlog. Any industrial enterprise survives in a relatively stable industrial chain coordination system, and its constraints are never a single element. If you want to achieve soft output in any part of the industry chain, you need to coordinate the rhythm between upstream and downstream.
In the past, a good supplier standard was lean manufacturing, reliable quality, and prompt delivery. Now, more consideration should be given to the ability of leading R&D and design to keep up. Just like a clothing company, if the implementation can be customized on demand, the first thing to consider is whether its design ability and pattern-making ability can keep up with the ever-changing size requirements. At present, the Red Collar Group, which is famous for its C2M personalized customization, directly faces consumers through different channels every day. The number of personalized suits received exceeds 3,000. If it is based on the original manual, at least 1,500 skilled workers are required. The pattern maker can complete it. The recruitment, training and hiring of 1,500 pattern makers is an impossible task for Red Collar and even any larger suit factory. The Red Collar Group relies on its own BL system to achieve computer-on-demand design, on-demand automatic pattern making and transfer to digital cutting machines and subsequent processes through big data and computer versioning. This is the core point of grasping soft manufacturing.
The greatest value of cutting-edge technologies such as the Internet of Things, sensors, and cloud computing is not to enable industrial enterprises to achieve greater output in a shorter period of time, but to enable high-level data sharing between industrial enterprises and upstream suppliers and downstream sales terminals. The degree of softening of production will direct all aspects to the actual needs of users. The current market competition is the competition of the industrial chain, rather than the individual struggle between the enterprises. Whether it can win or not depends on the common ability and efficiency of all parties.
This is the soft manufacturing under the Internet thinking. Soft manufacturing must not rely on a large number of manual stacking, a large number of manual processing of various uncertain factors, and can be personalized and scaled to achieve. Otherwise, it will be meaningless.
Third, the introduction of "robot +", the future of industrial enterprises will produce subversive changes"Robots", everyone is now aware of it. The common definition of the International Organization for Standardization is: "a programmable and versatile manipulator; or a specialized system with computer-changeable and programmable actions for performing different tasks." It can bring many conveniences to humans. At the office.
The latest research results as of 2016 can be achieved: after the two robots meet, they can communicate with each other and choose the right mating partner. When robots exchange their own genome code through a "WIFI" network, this sexual reproductive mechanism can generate new genome code, send the code to a 3D printer, and then "proliferate" the various components of the small robot for assembly. Scientists have completed the entire life cycle test. When robot parents breed offspring, their functions are randomly combined. After the small robot is born, it needs to go through the learning process. If the conditions are met, the small robot can grow up and continue to breed the next generation. This technology can be used to colonize Mars. - This is a wonderful and wonderful thing.
And "robot +", here, we specifically refer to the "robot +" of industrial enterprises, it is another description.
We can boldly predict what the advanced industrial companies will be in the next 3-5 years:
1. The various management positions within the industrial enterprise have completely disappeared. There is no one in the purchasing department, the warehousing department, the production dispatching department, the administrative department, the sales office, the finance department... the management functions of the industrial enterprises have been greatly reduced to one tenth or even more. Less, and more than one person, one person is highly paid, able to handle various anomalies. This anomaly only accounts for one percent of all business. Other normal processes are handled automatically by the system. The system will automatically push the abnormal situation that will not be processed to the mobile terminal of the administrator, and the manager will handle it flexibly. The processing flow and decision-making will be learned by the system, and the system will know intelligently. How to deal with this abnormal situation next time, the management system becomes more and more intelligent;
2. Further, managers do not have to visit the factory, they can no longer belong to which company, and can provoke the responsibility of several different managers of several factories in the same industry, and further can be undertaken across borders. It is not so much a manager, but a trainer, but he trains the factory's automated management system, making the system more mature and more intelligent. The system is loyal, can not sleep, and can always belong to the industrial enterprise owner.
3. Creative work that people can freely disperse, even if it seems that some management work that requires intelligence has been replaced by the system. Artificial intelligence completely changes the factory management mode. The ownership and use rights of plant machinery and equipment are completely separated, and the capabilities are open to the outside world and the society can share. People are increasingly becoming freelancers and becoming members of self-organizing circles (often 34% in the US and more than 53 million are freelancers). They become experts in a certain field, conduct emotional communication with consumers, and recommend experts. They help consumers (including professional corporate customers) to purchase and make decisions about personalized products, helping consumers to sketch and imagine. future. They are free to spend their time, doing the business they like, and getting paid several times more than they are today.
4. Once the products selected by the consumers are determined and meet the conditions for starting the project, only the extremely complex and individualized design requires people to participate creatively. Other parts can be processed and designed and automatically decomposed by intelligent design tools. Automate the arrangement of production, arrange purchases, automatically pick up the supplier platform, arrange the use, arrange the manufacturing, arrange the storage, arrange the delivery until the delivery to the consumer, automatically with the payment, if you can not pay on time, Your credit history will be submitted to the social credit system... Managers only need to deal with extremely complex anomalies, such as customer complaints, such as complex paid returns. .
5, and all the processes, from the awakening of consumer consciousness to the choice to manufacturing to the consumer to obtain its value until the disappearance of the entire life cycle (including the manufacture of large equipment, engineering projects), are available at some nodes and consumption Whether it is video, data or video, there are temperatures, feelings, and stories. The main consumers in 2020 are young people who are now playing online games. They are the most important promoters of the Chinese Internet generation. They have truly become the Internet generation in China, and they have become the power masters of enterprises, and gradually participate until they decide the decisions of enterprises. They need to respect and recognize more, so Ma Yun believes that "only when the company is in power after 85, B2B will usher in a mature opportunity." B2B ushered in the spring when the Chinese economy went down.
6. The internal management of industrial enterprises, whether it is less people or unmanned, is more and more timely, more accurate, more scientific and management, and more and more lean. The so-called "disease" is to enable senior managers to perceive the current problems in the enterprise in real time and to make judgments and decisions. As a simple example, traditional ERP has a very common parameter setting in inventory management: “safety inventoryâ€. When the inventory of the item is below the set safety stock quantity, the system triggers the generation of the purchase plan. But in all ERP software, this value is manually entered, and most of the values ​​are empirical values. Once set, you will never have to deal with it again - it will kill you, it will affect the enterprise. health. A lot of inventory backlogs are generated in this way, because the setting and dynamic adjustment of safety stocks must be scientifically calculated and dynamically adjusted according to the maximum order lead time, demand change value and safety factor. The future system is intelligently able to intelligently set the security inventory parameters, and can diagnose the current state of the enterprise inventory in real time and adjust it in real time. Only when there is a stagnant material, will it be "troublesome" to the manager.
7, the manufacturing process within the workshop, to achieve less people. Through the on-site transformation of IE, the workshop has a high degree of soft automation, which is the scene of Industry 4.0. It can realize automatic identification, automatic matching, automatic mold replacement, automatic circulation according to personalized customized orders, and automatically provide detection information to monitoring. In the hands of the person, the progress is automatically reported and displayed, and even the equipment can be diagnosed by itself. After the alarm, the equipment manufacturer is automatically notified to come to the person for maintenance.
All the scenes are actually not ideas and prophecies, but Tianyi, together with some visionary and valued customers, are gradually building and gradually realizing the status quo of the factory. The future has come, and it is the “robot+†of industrial enterprises that can realize these scenes. It is also an implied management robot in the new generation management platform system that Tianyi is working on to develop.
"Robot +" is actually a soft management robot. It is different from the "robot" that everyone sees now. It is hidden in the background of the management system and is an invisible robot (of course, through some simulations, it can also be displayed on the front desk). Just as the Alpha dog that defeated Li Shishi is a Go robot, the soft management robot also has the following capabilities:
Intelligence: refers to feeling and perception, including memory, computing, comparison, identification, judgment, decision making, learning, and logical reasoning;
Function: refers to flexibility, versatility or space possession;
Physical energy: refers to force, speed, reliability, compatibility and life.
Different from the robots that are seen every day, the soft management robots are more devoted to artificial intelligence (ArTIficialIntelligence, AI) because they do not have the necessary control systems, detection systems and driving devices on traditional robots. Carry out research to make the technology of artificial intelligence go further, study the rules of industrial enterprise managers full of intelligence and creative activities, construct a human system with certain intelligence through soft management robots, study how to let computers complete, or partially complete the needs of the past The intelligence can be competent for the job.
According to the 80/20 principle, most of the work of an ordinary corporate manager is a repetitive behavior, such as purchasing managers, most of which are spent on placing orders, urging delivery, quality claims, controlling inventory, etc. Can it be handed over to a "purchasing robot" with "weak artificial intelligence"? - It can be done, and if the constraints are set enough, the logic is powerful enough to be more precise than manual, and to achieve control. The manager, as long as it handles the abnormal situation pushed by the soft robot, is fine. And this abnormal situation as a "training material", you can continue to train this robot, the next time there is a similar situation, you know how to deal with it. In this way, the more intelligent the robot can train, the more intelligent it will grow.
The research direction of “Robot+†can be divided into two types: one is to use traditional programming techniques to make the system show intelligent effects, regardless of whether the method used is the same as that used by human or animal bodies. This method is called Engineering Method (ENGINEERING APPROACH), which has already made achievements in some fields. The latest result is that news writing can also be robotized. The other is the MODELING APPROACH, which not only depends on the effect, but also requires that the method of implementation be the same or similar to that used by humans or living organisms. Genetic algorithm (GENERIC ALGORITHM, abbreviated as GA) and artificial neural network (ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK, referred to as ANN) belong to the latter type. Genetic algorithms mimic the genetic-evolutionary mechanisms of humans or organisms, and artificial neural networks mimic the movement of nerve cells in the human or animal brain. In order to get the same intelligent effect, both methods are usually available. With the former method, it is necessary to manually specify the program logic, and if the game is simple, it is convenient. If the game is complex, the number of characters and the amount of activity space increase, the corresponding logic will be complicated (exponential growth), and manual programming is very cumbersome and error-prone. Once an error occurs, you must modify the original program, recompile, debug, and finally provide a new version for the user or provide a new patch, which is very troublesome. With the latter method, the programmer has to design an intelligent system (a module) for each character to control. This intelligent system (module) starts to understand nothing, just like a newborn baby, but it can learn, can Gradually adapt to the environment and cope with various complicated situations. This kind of system often makes mistakes at the beginning, but it can learn the lesson. It may be corrected the next time it is run, at least not forever, and it will not be used to release new versions or patches. Using this method to achieve artificial intelligence requires programmers to have biological thinking methods, and entry is more difficult. But once in the door, it can be widely used. Since this method of programming does not need to specify the rules of the character's activity, it is usually more labor-intensive than the former method.
These two research directions have applications in the "robot +" field. The former can deal with weaker robots, such as purchasing robots, sending robots, order processing robots, and answering robots. The latter can deal with some slightly stronger, more like middle managers. Posts, such as service robots, personalized robots, scheduling robots, data analysis robots, etc., require continuous intensive training by managers, constantly making them more intelligent, and more distinctive industry characteristics and enterprises. feature.
The former can be deployed on a public cloud platform, provided to industrial enterprises on-demand configuration, connected to the existing business system of the enterprise, and rented on demand. Just as a company pays its employees, it only pays the robots a lower wage, and never makes a mistake, and there is no replacement loss.
The latter is the enterprise or industry to build their own private cloud, first need to collect a large amount of data, let the data be called one of the company's most valuable assets and revitalize, let the data become the basis of training robots, data-driven robots, data to make robots change More intelligent, and then managers continue to use a variety of anomalies to train, so that the industry robots gradually become soft, intelligent, so that industry robots truly become the core assets of the enterprise, not only more intelligent, and forever Young, never betrayed, can be handed down.
In the foreseeable future, “Robot+†represents the supreme point of the next generation management system, under the Internet thinking, cloud computing (lease mode), Internet of Things (automatic identification), big data drive (prevention and training) and biology Simulation technology, even psychology, will be a perfect combination in the high-tech product "Robot +". As a leading value-added service provider for IT systems in the country, Tianyi is willing to invest in research and exploration together with some enterprises and entrepreneurs who are far-sighted, courageous and determined to make breakthroughs and changes. I believe that there will soon be a model company coming out, like a lighthouse, in the dark, becoming a model factory with inclusive significance, guiding our bright future.
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