President of ICInsights: Integration is the Future of Chip Industry

In the shadow of the global economic outlook and the uncertain transition of the mobile communication system, this year's semiconductor industry performance may be barely "blurred" with a growth rate of less than 5%; but the latest forecast report published by ICInsights, a market research organization, points out that 2012 The annual IC market growth rate will be fine-tuned to two figures. In the long run, if the industry undergoes a consolidation, it should help maintain moderate growth.

"Our view is that this year the semiconductor market will remain flat, or up to 5% growth;" Bill McClean, president of ICInsights, said at the agency's annual meeting in Silicon Valley, USA. Earlier this year, when the 311 earthquake in Japan and the U.S. economy weakened, ICInsights will halve its forecast of a 10% growth in the chip industry this year; but McClean said: "If the global GDP growth rate this year can reach At 3.8%, we have the opportunity to see that the growth rate of the wafer industry is a little better than the 7% average sales growth rate of the overall system product market."

In spite of the recent gloom in the industry, McClean still believes: "The wafer market has a bright future. I have not seen any factor that will change the market's traditional annual growth rate of 8 to 9%." Earlier this year, the market forecasted. The US’s GDP growth rate this year may have decreased from 4% previously thought to 1.7%, which also affected the forecast of the growth rate of the wafer industry. Although the US GDP growth rate is expected to recover to 2.85% in 2012, McClean said that if the US Congress fails to pass the salary With regard to the tax exemption and the unemployment benefit extension bill, I am afraid that this figure can only reach 2.22%.

Global GDP is expected to rebound back to a normal growth rate of 3.6% next year, mainly driven by the recovery in Japan and the United States, and the continued strong growth in emerging markets such as China; McClean pointed out that China has become the world’s largest PC buyer this year. It is also a big purchase of mobile phones thanks to the official incentive policies of the car. In 2010, it consumed 300 million mobile phones.

However, soaring crude oil prices are the greatest risks to GDP growth rates. Between 2002 and 2002, the compound annual growth rate of crude oil prices soared to 17%. This figure was only 3% between 1988 and 2002; McClean added that He pointed out: "In the next five years, we probably do not see global GDP reaching a level of 4%. The main reason is that we are stuck with crude oil prices."

Growth rate of various electronic industry sectors in 2011 Forecasting smart phones and tablet devices ICInsights predicts that sales of global electronic system products are expected to maintain a normal growth rate of 6% in 2011, with a slight chance of a slight improvement to 7% next year; The product is the department that leads the growth of this market. This year's growth rate is expected to reach 12%, followed by automotive products, with a growth rate of approximately 6%.

Mobile devices are an area with strong growth momentum. In addition to the increase in shipments of smart phones, the proportion of mobile phone shipments is also expanding. It is expected to reach 30% by the end of 2011; the average sales amount of smart phones is forecasted. This year reached 118 dollars, the figure was 107 dollars last year.

"If you haven't reached the smart phone industry, I'm afraid this time has already been eliminated by the mobile phone market." McClean pointed out that Nokia Nokia's mobile phone sales fell 14%, because too late to reach the smart phone market; with Time Taiwanese HTC's performance is doubled, because it is focused on the introduction of high-end smart phone products.

In the PC market segment, ICInsights predicts that the market will continue to grow slightly in the next two quarters. The growth rate for this year and 2012 will reach 3% and 5%, respectively, and the growth momentum will mainly come from corporate buyers.

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